13 March 2025 – New data from research by an international body of researchers, including representatives from the Institute of Hydrobiology & Ecology and Central Asian Institute of Environmental Research in Kazakhstan shows that even a “modest” 5-10 meters decrease in Caspian Sea level would have devastating impacts on the local biodiversity and communities.
The Caspian Sea has been historically rich in biodiversity, supporting more than 300 species of endemic invertebrates and 76 endemic fish. Under 5- and 10-meter decline scenarios, the already endangered Caspian seal faces a 57% and an 81% loss of its breeding grounds, respectively. Meanwhile, sturgeon populations, already reduced by 90% over the past 50 years, could see a further 25-45 % loss of their shallow water habitat. The sea’s collapse will also threaten internationally important habitats, such as areas supporting spawning fishes and migratory birds.
As sea levels decrease, the ecosystem services provided by the Caspian Sea to nearby areas will also be affected, since it’s projected to impact over 80% of ecosystems and ecologically important areas. For instance, the decreases in precipitation will further exacerbate the water shortage crisis in the region. Additionally, it will have devastating impacts on infrastructure, economic stability and wellbeing of local communities. The Volga River, the region’s vital trade route shipping millions of tons of cargo each year, could soon be impassable, severing critical supply chains. Aktau’s desalination plant is already struggling due to lower water levels.
In response to this worsening crisis, NGOs have grouped to form the Save the Caspian Sea campaign, founded by environmental lawyer Vadim Ni, advocating for international cooperation, as well as corporate accountability and transparency. The campaign recently held a roundtable in Astana, bringing scientists, activists, media representatives and government officials together. The campaign has also sent a letter to the Ministry of Energy of Kazakhstan requesting environmental information on the Product Sharing Agreements and Joint Venture Agreements.
"The Caspian Sea is disappearing before our eyes, and the consequences are profound," said Vadim Ni, founder of Save the Caspian Sea. "This is not just an environmental crisis but also a humanitarian and economic catastrophe. The modern studies on the Caspian Sea underscore what we've been saying since we launched our campaign - that addressing these issues will require a holistic approach and strong international attention and cooperation."
“Central Asia is already predicted to enter a chronic water shortage phase by 2028. For Kazakhstan, losing 20% of the Caspian Sea would cause unknown harm to a growing population.”
The crisis mirrors the collapse of the Aral Sea, where unchecked environmental degradation led to a public health emergency. Toxic dust from the exposed seabed could bring severe respiratory diseases to millions. Coastal settlements in Kazakhstan and Russia could be forced to relocate as the shoreline moves an estimated 89 kilometres inland (the average assessed shoreline retreat). Fishing-dependent communities face economic collapse as spawning grounds disappear, and alternative sources of income, such as aquaculture and ecotourism, are becoming increasingly unviable.
The Save the Caspian Sea calls for immediate transparency in environmental impact assessments, stricter regulations on industrial pollution, and a coordinated regional response to water loss.
For media inquiries, interviews, or further information, please contact:
Email: media@savethecaspiansea.com
Website: www.savethecaspiansea.com
About Save the Caspian Sea
Save the Caspian Sea is the only coordinated global environmental campaign working to protect the Caspian Sea and its surrounding ecosystems from the damaging impacts of oil extraction, pollution, and climate change. We advocate for greater transparency and environmental accountability to ensure the preservation of the Caspian Sea for future generations.
For more information, please visit savethecaspiansea.com